https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/ ... indicator/
I'm seeing strong indications that this cycle can play out a double bubble type scenario like what took place in 2013.
2013 saw a parabolic high to $250 and then a strong drop to find weekly and monthly support during a 7 month correction/consolidation. It took from April 2013 to October 2013 to get back to the prior high. Nov 2013 price moved 350% above the first top to find the high of the 2nd bubble at just below $1200.
Monthly RSI and EMA of RSI are suggesting something similar plays out. Monthly RSI and Pi Cycle Top Indicator are also showing a potential top will confirm fairly soon. The Pi Cycle moving averages look closer than they are until you zoom in a little. The moving averages still have some distance between them. It was around 6% last time I checked a few days ago so getting VERY close but they haven't crossed yet.
Now on to the monthly RSI which offers a ton of information IMO. Currently, the RSI is getting to an area where previous cycle parabolic highs have taken place.
*****Something that is telling us to pay close attention is how far above the EMA the RSI currently is. Basically, this is the farthest price has been extended above the EMA in BTC history so there is a strong possibility that 58K is the top but would it be the top top or Top #1 of the double bubble? Read on and you'll see my thoughts on this.*****
The monthly RSI is currently at 89 and typically tops between 95-97. This tells me there is some gas in the tank. Price could make one more push higher above 58K maybe towards 70K but things would be getting very hot by then.
*****The grey line is an EMA of the RSI and that is the evidence that suggests to me there is a lot of life left in this bull market. Currently, it's reading at 73.5 and has found tops between 80 and 85. Where it is right now is where it was in 2017 when price was at around 2K and getting ready to go another 10X. When the EMA of the RSI starts to trend above 76 is when the final parabolic push takes place*****
So the good news is that the top may not yet be in and even if it is, there's a chance price trends much higher into the early fall or closer to the end of the year. Could even find the secondary top in summer around June/July.The bad news is that like 2013, the price is very overextended above weekly and monthly moving average support which means a top could bring on a more significant correction than why might be expected fundamentally. Right now this area of support is basically between 30-32K. And this will climb higher with closes. My opinion is that 40K is more likely to be an area of strong support but my opinion has no bearing on where technical support is and TA always trumps opinion.
Also included in this post is a chart showing what it would look like if something similar to 2013 played out and assuming that 58K is the first top of the double bubble. Spoiler alert it'd put price at around 260K sometime around Sept-end of year. That would require a $4.75T marketcap. So it would take some major adoption to bring that much money into BTC by the end of the year. Currently, the marketcap is at around $870B.
With Mark Wood
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