Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

With Mark Wood
bigw
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:45 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 11 times

Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by bigw »

First off, congrats on the forum. Excited to be here!

Background
  • In the depths of the bear market / early bull market, I took the decision to create my own system just like EMASAR, albeit starting from a different basis (pocketing the valuable BTC in the process. Sorry Tyler!) Must say though, I've enjoyed the coding process, being a noob to TradingView scripts.
  • I don't plan on making this available at all. I am certain it is inferior to EMASAR (given the lack of markers and buoys, not to mention the incredible learning resources & strategies amongst other things). What I did want to demonstrate and for everyone to see though is just how much the Honest Analysts' work inspires others. You guys are awesome!
  • I was fascinated by the accuracy of the "Pi Cycle Top" which has caught the absolute top in the previous 3 bull markets. This uses the 111 day moving average (yellow line), alongside the 350x2 (white line), and when you see those lines cross it automatically draws the labels. Essentially, when these two lines cross, it usually signals the market has over-reached, and we then see significant bear markets. Thankfully, we still have some gas left in the tank as we stand today.
  • Really loved the concept of EMASAR with a sky/beach/ocean etc, so I sought to establish a similar theme using these pi-cycle tops, without the upside-down sky. Using the 111 day moving average on BTC markets (and 50/200 day moving average in other markets), specific multipliers are applied, which the price as you can see tends to respect. 'Dip' indicators equally show when a) prices have oversold RSI conditions and b) when the price reclaims the ocean from the depths of the sea.

Weekly Chart
  • BTCUSD - W - 19Feb21
    BTCUSD - W - 19Feb21
    Weekly.jpg (234.09 KiB) Viewed 1049 times
  • My thoughts on current price action - this really is a fascinating level to watch. The pi-cycle top indicator is still someway away from triggering. Providing that we close above the bottom of the sky ($53k) this week, we could be making a run for the very top of it ($79k).
  • If we fall out of bed and fail to hold this level, target 1 ($35k) and target 2 ($30k) are in play. I am not anticipating that at this stage, I'm just waiting for BTC to choose its destiny, before setting any 'optimistic' ladders below. Certainly not buying here nor exiting any positions, just profit-taking with the popcorn out.
  • In 2013 we ran straight-through the sky on not 1 but 2 occasions. We have yet to do that since :lol: Of course anything is possible, but we couldn't hold the sky on the first attempt (Jan 2021). If we do make it inside again, the top should still cap the market (just like in 2017).
  • Interestingly, we are currently back-testing the bottom of the sky ($53k) which we couldn't hold previously, which is why this area and this week's close is going to be so fascinating to watch.
  • Below the main chart, is also the distance from the 50 EMA on the weekly. In January we were really close to breaking records, with how far above the EMA we were. Very close to 2013 top levels. Now the EMA is catching-up, with a downwards trajectory (despite making new highs - possible bearish divergence?). I suspect that means a larger pullback is imminent. That, or m80n! Nothing in between.
Nick
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:19 am
Been thanked: 1 time

Re: Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by Nick »

if u are intrested: a great guy from another group i am in just now created, a reverse function for the PI cycle tops, type in - caretaker- and u´ll see, gives u exact price levels where price has to be..... hope u enjoy, i think he did a great job again with this
bigw
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:45 pm
Has thanked: 1 time
Been thanked: 11 times

Re: Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by bigw »

  • A cheeky 18% correction earlier today (and bullish reaction) suggests we may now climb back-up once more and pivot up into the $70-80ks range. Beach caught the very bottom of the wick, shy about $100 on a $47k asset.
  • Last time we saw a candle like that after long caterpillar climb to the upside was 4th Jan (circled on RSI and EMA indicators at bottom). That prior red wick, which took price out of the channel temporarily, triggered quite a few stops. I expect this one did just the same too.
  • We reclaimed this channel in the very same 4hr wick, suggesting buyers are stepping-in to this market at opportune times still.
  • A ~52% rise, like previously, from the bottom would see us reach $73k. Given the interest in this asset class right now, I could equally see us reaching the aforementioned $80k by early March.
  • For better risk/reward entry, could wait until see reversal in both RSI and distance from EMA on the 4hr chart. 1hr chart is already suggesting a reversal is playing out.
  • Given the reaction, now not expecting a significant pullback now until $70-80k. Not completely out of the woods, so keep on to your hats. I expect the volatility will resume, to the upside however.
  • BTCUSD - 4HR - 22Feb21
    BTCUSD - 4HR - 22Feb21
    4HR.jpg (229.67 KiB) Viewed 984 times
Gatortpt221
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:05 pm
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 30 times

Re: Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by Gatortpt221 »

I've been following this as well. Will hopefully touch on it tomorrow with Sawchruhteez. Always wondering if "this time will be different" but so far things are rolling no differently than the previous cycles and I'm seeing things on weekly and monthly oscillators that are suggesting a topping formation could be coming sooner than later. Would expect it to be an initial top tho with hopefully much higher prices later in the year.
Gatortpt221
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:05 pm
Has thanked: 5 times
Been thanked: 30 times

Re: Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by Gatortpt221 »

I've been following this as well. Will hopefully touch on it tomorrow with Sawchruhteez. Always wondering if "this time will be different" but so far things are rolling no differently than the previous cycles and I'm seeing things on weekly and monthly oscillators that are suggesting a topping formation could be coming sooner than later. Would expect it to be an initial top tho with hopefully much higher prices later in the year.
Sam
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:10 pm
Has thanked: 29 times
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by Sam »

I was fascinated by the accuracy of the "Pi Cycle Top" which has caught the absolute top in the previous 3 bull markets.
Do you know when the Pi Cycle Top indicator was created? If it was created after the previous 2017 top it would indicate it's calibrated to the previous highs and didn't actually predict them in advance. The next top could be the first time the model is actually tested.
c277c8e4af
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:43 pm
Has thanked: 26 times
Been thanked: 23 times

Re: Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by c277c8e4af »

Sam wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 12:08 pm
I was fascinated by the accuracy of the "Pi Cycle Top" which has caught the absolute top in the previous 3 bull markets.
Do you know when the Pi Cycle Top indicator was created? If it was created after the previous 2017 top it would indicate it's calibrated to the previous highs and didn't actually predict them in advance. The next top could be the first time the model is actually tested.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe it was made after 2017.
c277c8e4af
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:43 pm
Has thanked: 26 times
Been thanked: 23 times

Re: Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by c277c8e4af »

The further the forecast, the more room for error there is. This is what the Pi cycle would look like if we went sideways.
tNO30GNS.png
tNO30GNS.png (99.41 KiB) Viewed 739 times
c277c8e4af
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:43 pm
Has thanked: 26 times
Been thanked: 23 times

Re: Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by c277c8e4af »

Here is Benjamin Cowen's take on the PI Cycle top. I respect his analysis:
c277c8e4af
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:43 pm
Has thanked: 26 times
Been thanked: 23 times

Re: Pi Cycle Tops & Bottoms

Post by c277c8e4af »

The Pi Cycle top is in, according to the model, there will be an ATH within 3 days of the top followed by a long period with no new ATHs.

Image
Post Reply