Etherium

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Sam
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Etherium

Post by Sam »

Any thoughts on Etherium? It sold off to retest the 2018 high. If the level holds this would be a major resistance / support flip. This is currently a hold for me.
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Sam
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Etherium bounced

Post by Sam »

Etherium bounced nicely off the 2018 high. Time will tell whether this move will continue to the upside or if this is a dead cat bounce. The 1.618 fib extension indicates a mid term target near $2600 which could prove to be a nice sell zone. Watch out for a potential dead cat bounce turning into a descending triangle and breaking down indicating a fundamental change in the overall market conditions and bullish trend reversal.
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Sam
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Etherium potential short term bounce zone

Post by Sam »

Potential short term bounce zone for Etherium between the 0.618 & 0.382 fibs before a push higher. Failure to bounce at the 0.382 level could lead to a deeper correction.
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Tyler D. Coates
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Re: Etherium

Post by Tyler D. Coates »

1h emasar is on a short signal and 4h is in a no trade zone. As long as price is below the 4h 200 ema I am leaning bearish, but that would change if it reclaims that area as support.

1h emasar

Image

4h emasar

Image
benzenn
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Re: Etherium

Post by benzenn »

Thanks for the insight!
Sam
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Re: Etherium

Post by Sam »

Previously when ETH closed a daily candle below the 55 day EMA it went on to test the 144 day EMA. The last time this happened BTC lead the move in September. Now there appears to be a bit of divergence between ETH and BTC with BTC looking bullish while ETH looks weak with the 21 EMA currently acting as resistance. Pure speculation, but a weakening ETH could indicate a weakening risk appetite in the crypto market and a further move down to the 144 EMA could drag BTC down with it. It will be interesting to see what happens, I think it's unlikely that BTC and ETH will head in separate directions.

What does EMASAR indicate today for ETH?
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Etherium topping formation

Post by Sam »

Here's a study of ETH on the monthly chart where I compare the current price action with the end of the last bull market January 2018 top.
  • December 2017 saw a 110% increase. January 2021 saw a 106% increase.
  • December 2017 saw a big volume increase over the prior 3 months. January 2021 saw a big volume increase doubling the November 2020 volume.
  • Volume halves in January 2018 from the December 2017 high. Volume roughly halves in February 2021 from the January 2021 all time high.
  • The January 2018 candle has a 28.5% wick to the upside. The February 2021 candle is a shooting star with a 43.6% wick to the upside over 3 times the body length.
Massive monthly wicks to the upside have previously always indicated a significant drop the following month. Why the ETH chart? Simple... ETH represents FOMO and dumb money as speculators move up the risk curve.
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Etherium comparison with 2018 top

Post by Sam »

Looking again at the January 2018 top for ETH we can see that there was resistance at the 0.618 retracement of the prior swing high to swing low. This was followed by a lower low looking at the daily closes followed by a higher high which penetrated the 0.618 level. This higher high fell short of the 0.786 level and fell back down through the bottom support.
eth-2018-top.jpg
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Now looking at the latest ETH chart we must watch for resistance at the 0.618 retracement level. Watch out below if the 50 EMA does not act as support! Also watch out for a broadening pattern with lower lows and higher highs with resistance in the 0.618 to 0.786 range.
eth-2021-potential-mid-term-top.jpg
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Not quite out of the woods yet!
Sam
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Re: Etherium

Post by Sam »

This chart shows that in 2018 ETH headed back to the 144 (roughly 21 week) EMA before seeing resistance at the 55 EMA and entering a long term bear trend.
eth-2018-top-with-144-ma.jpg
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Tyler D. Coates
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Re: Etherium topping formation

Post by Tyler D. Coates »

Sam wrote: Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:23 am Here's a study of ETH on the monthly chart where I compare the current price action with the end of the last bull market January 2018 top.
  • December 2017 saw a 110% increase. January 2021 saw a 106% increase.
  • December 2017 saw a big volume increase over the prior 3 months. January 2021 saw a big volume increase doubling the November 2020 volume.
  • Volume halves in January 2018 from the December 2017 high. Volume roughly halves in February 2021 from the January 2021 all time high.
  • The January 2018 candle has a 28.5% wick to the upside. The February 2021 candle is a shooting star with a 43.6% wick to the upside over 3 times the body length.
Massive monthly wicks to the upside have previously always indicated a significant drop the following month. Why the ETH chart? Simple... ETH represents FOMO and dumb money as speculators move up the risk curve.
Great analysis, thanks for sharing! ETH is finally maturing enough to look at these types of comparisons seriously. I haven't taken the time to dive deep into fractal comparisons myself but am realizing that I should sooner rather than later. Cheers!
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